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The charts below show my estimated line, opening line and closing line. I also added the final score with public betting percentages and how the team did straight up, against the spread, power rating and spread range.
I've added yards per point for offense and defense mainly to see how a team does when they play their 2nd division game against the same opponent. The starting QB is listed and if the team was due up or due down. I'll be adding the rest of the teams through out this month.
DIVISION POWER RATINGS 1B (pdf)Download
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Pittsburgh-8.5 at Cleveland 2017
The Steelers opened at -10, closed at -8.5. Power ratings favored the Steelers by 11. The score was tied after the first quarter, but the Steelers went up 21-10 going to the 4th. A late touchdown by Cleveland and a two point conversion ended the scoring 21-18. Instead of an 11 point win, Cleveland got the backdoor cover.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh-5
My numbers favored the Steelers by 28 points. Cleveland was a spread range dog. The Browns had lost by 17 point margins in their last two games. They were 0-15 and last chance to try and get a win. The Steelers rested their starters. Landry Jones started for Pittsburgh. The Steelers jumped out 7-0 and 21-14 at the half. Cleveland cut the margin to 24-28 heading to the 4th. Cleveland had a couple of chances to take the lead. WR Coleman was all alone on the sideline and he dropped the ball with about 2 minutes left. Final 28-24 Pittsburgh.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans-7 2017
My numbers favored the Saints by 12.5 points. Tampa was possible due up. The Bucc’s were playing their third road game in 4 weeks, (0-1 SU and ATS). Tampa was playing their 2nd straight division game and coming off a 3-17 loss at Carolina. The Saints were on a 5 game winning streak after putting away the Bears 20-12. The Saints jumped out to a 16-3 lead at half and went on to win 30-10. Fitzpatrick was held to 68 yards passing.
New Orleans-6.5 at Tampa Bay
My numbers favored the Saints by 11.5 points. Tampa Bay was a spread range dog at home. New Orleans needed a win or a Carolina loss to clinch the division. Tampa Bay was on a 5 game losing streak. The Saints were up 14-13 at the half and 17-13 going to the 4th. The Bucc’s came back to get to within 23-24 and with 1:58 remaining Winston engineered a 95 yard drive to upset the Saints 31-24. Saints still won the division thanks to Carolina losing to Atlanta.
Kansas City-3 at LA Chargers 2017
The Chargers lost their first two games by a total of 5 points. The Chiefs just beat Philadelphia 27-20. My power ratings favored KC by 4.5 so I took the value with Kansas City on the road. Kansas City jumped out 14-0 and went to half up 17-10. KC RB Hunt tacked on the last touchdown KC 24-10. Note: Chiefs beat the Chargers 7 straight times.
LA Chargers-1 at Kansas City
My numbers favored the Chargers by 5.5 points. The Chargers were looking for payback of a 24-10 loss earlier. Kansas City was a spread range dog at home and had just snapped a 4 game losing streak by defeating Oakland 26-15. Kansas City had a 10-6 lead at the half. The Chargers took the lead 13-10, but Rivers threw 3 interceptions in the 2nd half. The Chiefs regained the lead 20-13 and scored 10 unanswered points in the 4th to win 30-13. Note: this game was for the Division.
Chicago at Green Bay-7 2017
This was a Thursday game. My numbers favored the Packers by 11. The Packers were missing both starting tackles and three back-ups who were already on injured reserve. I stayed with my power rating mainly because of Rodgers. The Bears QB Glennon was horrific. Two fumbles to start the game off and two interceptions to finish it off. Packers went up 21-7 and won going away 35-14.
Green Bay at Chicago-5
My numbers favored Chicago by 6. The Bears were coming off a bye week. Green Bay’s Rodgers was still out, but with their slide, lost 3 in a row, they were a possible due up. The Packers were off a Monday night loss to the Lions and on a short week. The Bears were down 6-10 at the half. The Bears had a replay challenge backfire in a big way as they were threatening to score in the second quarter. The Packers held on for a 23-16 win.